Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through November 14, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.60|
|The Good Wife||0.79|
|Rules of Engagement||1.00|
|$#*! My Dad Says||1.05|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.14|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.14|
|Mike & Molly||1.19|
|Big Bang Theory||1.41|
|Two And A Half Men||already renewed||1.48|
For this week, the Renew / Cancel Index is going retentionista* for CBS sitcoms.
CBS has several plum timeslots for sitcoms in its schedule this season, following The Big Bang Theory, Two An A Half Men, and to a lesser extent How I Met Your Mother.
In the past two seasons, CBS has shown that it won't hesitate to cancel a sitcom in a plum timeslot even if it is getting average or slightly above average ratings.
In 2008-9, Worst Week averaged a 3.1 rating through early November, which was slightly below the CBS overall scripted show average, but just 63% of Two And A Half Men's rating which it followed. Result: Worst Week was cancelled.
In 2009-10, Accidentally On Purpose averaged a 3.1 rating through early November, again very close to the CBS overall scripted show average, but just 89% of How I Met Your Mother's rating which it followed. Result: Accidentally On Purpose was moved to Wednesday in the spring, and then cancelled.
This season, $#*! My Dad Says is averaging a 3.2 rating so far, slightly above the CBS scripted show average, but it's 74% of The Big Bang Theory's rating which it follows.
Conclusion: $#*! My Dad Says is a toss up, at best, for renewal.
Rules of Engagement is averaging 87% of How I Met Your Mother's ratings this season. Mike & Molly is averaging 80% of Two And A Half Men's ratings so far this season.
Conclusion: CBS did cancel 3 sitcoms last season, but only one was an average rated retenionista cancellation. The other two, Old Christine and Gary Unmarried, had well below average ratings unlike any current CBS sitcoms. I think it's unlikely that CBS cancels more than one sitcom this season, so both Rules and Mike & Molly seem pretty safe.
One change to CBS drama predictions, CSI:Miami ratings have fallen enough recently to put the show into the "toss up" category. More on that in future weeks.
*Retentionista's are the term I use for folks who judge the future of every show by the "retention" of its lead in show's ratings. Applied as a standard metric for every show it's either impossible (8pm shows!) or often misleading, but for CBS sitcoms, today we are all retentionistas. Viva, la revolution!
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.