NBC: The Cancellation Bear Examines NBC’s Mid-Season Schedule
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through November 14, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Law & Order: LA||0.99|
|30 Rock||already renewed||1.09|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.11|
The cancellation bear is not in the habit of paying attention to anything the networks say (press releases, interviews) and instead pays attention only to what they do (renewing, cancelling and scheduling shows), so last night he sat down to see what NBC’s new mid-season schedule said about NBC’s intentions.
The ratings say The Event’s in trouble, and its scheduled hiatus until February 28 tells the cancellation bear that like ABC’s Flash Forward last season, he should make future dinner plans for it.
If anyone needed any more proof that Chase will be cancelled at the end of this season, the fact that NBC moved it against American Idol indicates that all hope for the show being renewed is gone.
Chuck being kept at 8pm Monday doesn’t tell the bear anything he didn’t already know.
NBC hasn’t given up on Law & Order: LA yet, but it will have to stand “on its own” and not follow SVU in the spring. Whether it can survive “alone” or not, remains to be seen.
How Law & Order:SVU does at 10pm Wednesday may determine how much NBC wants to spend on the show next season. At its age and with the existing two leads it’s got to be crazy expensive right now. How big a check does NBC want to write for a show that’s averaging a 2.5 rating?
Outsourced, Community, Parks & Recreation and Perfect Couples will be racing against each other Thursday to stay ahead of the bear beginning January 20. How Outsourced does at 10:30 in the Spring will be more relevant to its future than how it’s done at 9:30 in the Fall.
Undercovers will be pulled from the schedule after 12/1. That’s the defacto cancellation announcement that anyone paying attention has been expecting. No word when the extra episodes will be burned off.
Outlaw’s series finale was last Saturday. The bear says “Burp”.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐😐 :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.