Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through November 21, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.59|
|The Good Wife||0.79|
|Rules of Engagement||1.00|
|$#*! My Dad Says||1.05|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.14|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.15|
|Mike & Molly||1.20|
|Big Bang Theory||1.42|
|Two And A Half Men||already renewed||1.49|
With CSI:NY being assigned to Friday night this Fall the conventional wisdom was that it would be the first of the CSI trio to leave CBS's lineup, and that this was likely its last season. But lately the ratings for Sunday night's CSI:Miami have fallen to the point where it looks to be in nearly as much danger of cancellation as CSI:NY.
Based on CBS renewal decisions in the last several seasons, a single 18-49 rating point for a Friday show is worth about 1.3 ratings points to CBS for a Sunday-Thursday show (although because so few shows have been renewed that aired on Fridays the available data is thin).
So CSI:NY's recent 1.7 and 1.5 ratings would be worth about a 2.2 and 2.0 rating the rest of the week. Not so different than CSI: Miami's recent two weeks of 2.3 ratings.
Any conversation that suggests that CSI:NY is on its way to cancellation may need to include CSI:Miami as a possibility too. I know the sinking boat photo has three people in it, use your imagination people!
Anyone suggesting that CBS won't cancel either needs to remember that CBS typically cancels 4+ hours of scripted shows to make room for new ones next fall. Medium's only the first hour to go.
Given that CBS has shown the propensity to cancel its lowest rated sitcom each season, even if it was above average overall, $#*! My Dad Says looks to be in at least some danger of cancellation.
The Defenders is likely headed to Medium's old Friday 8pm slot. Whether the show moves or not, it's likely to be cancelled at the end of the season.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.