NBC: Is “The Event” The Cancellation Bear Catching The Event?
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through November 21, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Chuck||:| :| :|||0.85|
|Community||:| :| :|||0.89|
|Parenthood||:| :| :|||0.94|
|Law & Order: LA||:| :| :|||0.97|
|The Event||:cry: :cry:||1.03|
|30 Rock||already renewed||1.08|
|Law & Order: SVU||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.10|
|Outsourced||:) :) :) :)||1.20|
|The Office||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.67|
After heavy promotion this Fall, The Event ratings started well out ahead of the cancellation bear, but its ratings kept falling, to just a 1.7 its last two weeks (three weeks including last night’s preliminary ratings). Now, NBC’s new mid-season schedule has The Event taking an extended hiatus until February 28. Any similarities that the cancellation bear sees between The Event and last season’s Flash Forward are not coincidental.
Why is The Event’s Index relatively high, yet its prognosis so bleak? Its early season ratings were so high, and it has fallen so far, so quickly, its average has not yet caught up with its current ratings situation.
Chase will certainly be cancelled at the end of this season. It might not even air its entire order of 22 episodes because its recent ratings have been so woeful.
Chuck, Parenthood and Law & Order:LA are all doing their best to stay ahead of the bear, although last night’s 1.7 rating for Chuck (which isn’t in the averages yet) was definitely a stumble. More on that next week.
Outsourced, Community, Parks & Recreation and Perfect Couples will be racing against each other on Thursday to stay ahead of the bear beginning January 20. How Outsourced does at 10:30 in the Spring will be more relevant to its future than how it did at 9:30 in the Fall, but those wishing for its demise should not be wagering any money they’re not prepared to lose.
Undercovers is heading for the cancellation boneyard, but with news that two more episodes have been scheduled to air on Dec 22 & 29, at least 11 of the 13 episodes produced have been scheduled.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.