Bubble Watch 2011-12: The Bubble Shrinks as More Shows Head Towards Cancellation

Categories: 1-Featured,Bubble Watch

Written By

November 28th, 2010

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season.  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This week changes were made that moved several shows off the bubble and into "likely to be canceled" territory.  Fringe, Human Target and Lie To Me all made that move.  I finally got around to moving NBC's The Event into that designation as well.

Note: the Renew/Cancel index is reading the scheduling tea leaves and has designated American Dad as a toss up that could go either way (AKA on the bubble).  I agree with the index -- it's obvious Fox is looking to try something else based on its mid-season schedule.   For now, I'm not designating American Dad on the bubble yet (or as likely to be canceled) because I want to see  what happens with Bob's Burgers at 8:30p on Sunday and The Cleveland Show at 9:30p on Sundays once that schedule begins on February 13.

Show Network Status
The Whole Truth ABC Certain to be Canceled
My Generation ABC Already Canceled
Detroit 1-8-7 ABC Likely to be Canceled
No Ordinary Family ABC Likely to be Canceled
Medium CBS Already Canceled
The Defenders CBS Likely to be Canceled
Life Unexpected CW Certain to be Canceled
The Event NBC Likely to be Canceled
Outlaw NBC Already Canceled
Undercovers NBC Certain to be Canceled
Chase NBC Certain to be Canceled
Fringe FOX Likely to be Canceled
The Good Guys FOX Certain to be Canceled
Human Target FOX Likely to be Canceled
Lie To Me FOX Likely to be Canceled
Lone Star FOX Already Canceled
Running Wilde FOX Certain to be Canceled

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In the unlikely event that Human Target and Lie To Me increase their ratings enough to move back in the other direction, they will.  And Lie To Me still might be summer show fodder, but there's not really a good way to guess at that from a numbers perspective.   Could Fringe perform better than expected on Friday?  That seems more likely to happen in the alternate universe.  But anything is possible, and I'll revisit designations if that happens.

Bubble Show Contenders:

Show Net
Better With You ABC
Blue Bloods CBS
CSI: Miami CBS
CSI: NY CBS
$#*! My Dad Says CBS
The Good Wife CBS
Community NBC
Chuck NBC
Law & Order: LA NBC
Parenthood NBC

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