Bubble Watch 2011-12: The Bubble Shrinks as More Shows Head Towards Cancellation
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season. Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
This week changes were made that moved several shows off the bubble and into “likely to be canceled” territory. Fringe, Human Target and Lie to Me all made that move. I finally got around to moving NBC’s The Event into that designation as well.
Note: the Renew/Cancel index is reading the scheduling tea leaves and has designated American Dad as a toss up that could go either way (AKA on the bubble). I agree with the index — it’s obvious Fox is looking to try something else based on its mid-season schedule. For now, I’m not designating American Dad on the bubble yet (or as likely to be canceled) because I want to see what happens with Bob’s Burgers at 8:30p on Sunday and The Cleveland Show at 9:30p on Sundays once that schedule begins on February 13.
|The Whole Truth||ABC||Certain to be Canceled|
|My Generation||ABC||Already Canceled|
|Detroit 1-8-7||ABC||Likely to be Canceled|
|No Ordinary Family||ABC||Likely to be Canceled|
|The Defenders||CBS||Likely to be Canceled|
|Life Unexpected||CW||Certain to be Canceled|
|The Event||NBC||Likely to be Canceled|
|Undercovers||NBC||Certain to be Canceled|
|Chase||NBC||Certain to be Canceled|
|Fringe||FOX||Likely to be Canceled|
|The Good Guys||FOX||Certain to be Canceled|
|Human Target||FOX||Likely to be Canceled|
|Lie to Me||FOX||Likely to be Canceled|
|Lone Star||FOX||Already Canceled|
|Running Wilde||FOX||Certain to be Canceled|
In the unlikely event that Human Target and Lie to Me increase their ratings enough to move back in the other direction, they will. And Lie to Me still might be summer show fodder, but there’s not really a good way to guess at that from a numbers perspective. Could Fringe perform better than expected on Friday? That seems more likely to happen in the alternate universe. But anything is possible, and I’ll revisit designations if that happens.
Bubble Show Contenders:
|Better With You||ABC|
|$#*! My Dad Says||CBS|
|The Good Wife||CBS|
|Law & Order: LA||NBC|