Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through December 5, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.59|
|The Good Wife||0.78|
|Rules of Engagement||1.00|
|$#*! My Dad Says||1.05|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.13|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.16|
|Mike & Molly||1.21|
|Big Bang Theory||1.43|
|Two And A Half Men||already renewed||1.49|
Given that any post about CBS show renewals and cancellations that doesn't start with the fact that CBS is likely to cancel at least four hours of scripted shows, as they've done every one of the last 3 years, has comments that immediately devolve into volleys of "it wins it's timeslot!", "it gets a squinty jillion average viewers!", "CBS targets everyone forget the 18-49 demo!" let's cut to the chase.
With Medium cancelled, that leaves at least 3 more hours of scripted shows that CBS will cancel to make room for new shows next fall.
Those 3 hours to be cancelled will almost certainly come from this list of shows:
- Blue Bloods
- The Defenders
- The Good Wife
- CSI: Miami
Given that CBS has shown the propensity to cancel its lowest rated new sitcom each season, even if it was above average rated, I'm making $#*! My Dad Says a tossup on the reasonable likelihood that CBS continues with the practice.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.