Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through December 5, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||0.27|
|Lie To Me||0.71|
|The Cleveland Show||already renewed||1.12|
|The Simpsons||already renewed||1.39|
With it clear that The Good Guys won't return during the regular broadcast season, and the sub-mediocre ratings trio of Lie To Me, Fringe and Human Target finally looking like their below average ratings may take them out of Fox's schedule as well, fans, particularly those of The Good Guys and Lie To Me, seem to hope that the sunny skies and warm breezes of Fox's summer schedule might keep those shows alive.
There's so little history on the renewals for broadcast summer scripted shows, I'm not going to get into the prediction business for them, but here are a few data points for consideration.
- ABC's scripted Rookie Blue, the only scripted show from last summer on any network already renewed for next summer cost a reported $350,000 an episode. I don't care how cheap you think The Good Guys and Lie To Me are. They're not that cheap. (btw, I wouldn't be surprised if Flashpoint returns to CBS next summer either, but it hasn't been announced).
- In almost all cases, the 2010 summer scripted shows, whatever they cost, got crushed in the ratings by unscripted shows. This was the early July ratings scorecard, but the final one wasn't much different. That's not a record that says to the networks "Pile on the summer scripted shows!"
After this post was 98% written and ready to go, the news broke that Fox would not order any more episodes of Lie To Me this season, capping the episode order at 13.
Fox's mid-season schedule indicates they're going to try to replace American Dad. Because of that, I consider American Dad a "toss up" for renewal next season. Whether Fox is successful in finding a replacement for American Dad is a completely different issue. On that, your guess is as good as mine.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.