Bubble Watch 2011-12: Fringe, Human Target, Lie to Me and The Good Guys: Too Soon!?
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season. Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
With repeats, holiday specials and December reality schedule spackle like The Sing Off (which is performing very well for NBC) and Skating with the Stars (which isn’t performing well for ABC), there were no changes in designations this week.
So far there are 17 shows that are either already canceled, certain to be canceled or likely to be canceled. Here’s the recap:
|The Whole Truth||ABC||Already Canceled|
|My Generation||ABC||Already Canceled|
|Detroit 1-8-7||ABC||Likely to be Canceled|
|No Ordinary Family||ABC||Likely to be Canceled|
|The Defenders||CBS||Likely to be Canceled|
|Life Unexpected||CW||Certain to be Canceled|
|The Event||NBC||Likely to be Canceled|
|Chase||NBC||Certain to be Canceled|
|Fringe||FOX||Likely to be Canceled|
|The Good Guys||FOX||Certain to be Canceled|
|Human Target||FOX||Likely to be Canceled|
|Lie to Me||FOX||Likely to be Canceled|
|Lone Star||FOX||Already Canceled|
|Running Wilde||FOX||Certain to be Canceled|
We’re not even halfway through the season yet, but early on there is more discussion about the list above than the actual bubble shows.
I have seen my fair share of complaints of “too soon” when it comes to designating Human Target and Fringe likely to be canceled. In the case of Human Target, it’s definitely not too soon. It pulled a 1.6 adults 18-49 rating against repeats on ABC and a new episode of the ratings weakling that is Undercovers. In the event of a miraculous ratings turnaround, designations will change.
As ever, this is no commentary on the show’s quality, just the ratings. Sadly, for fans of Human Target, the ratings stink.
It’s not too soon in the case of Fringe either, though if there is ratings surprise when it begins airing on Fridays, I’ll revisit.
I do understand the complaints of “couldn’t you wait to see how it does on Friday first,” but…
Fox chief Kevin Reilly threw Fringe fans a life raft of hope when the move to Fridays was first announced by saying that if the show pulls the same 1.9 rating on Fridays that it had been pulling on Thursdays it would be a huge win for Fox. Unfortunately, four of the last five Thursday airings have been below a 1.9, and the expectation is lower, not higher or stable ratings on Fridays.
Some think that Lie To Me will still return as a summer show. I can’t rule out that possibility, but with Fox capping this season’s order for Lie to Me at 13 episodes, even the chances for a summer return seem very slim.
There are a few diehard fans who think The Good Guys will be coming back as a summer series. Don’t hold your breath. Its woeful ratings more than outweigh any benefit of being relatively low cost.
|Better With You||ABC|
|$#*! My Dad Says||CBS|
|The Good Wife||CBS|
|Law & Order: LA||NBC|