Fox: The Ratings “Haves” And “Have Nots” (‘Fringe,’ ‘Human Target,’ & ‘Lie To Me’)
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through December 12, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||:oops:||0.27|
|Human Target||:cry: :cry:||0.60|
|Lie To Me||:cry: :cry:||0.71|
|Bones||:) :) :) :)||0.95|
|Raising Hope||:) :) :) :)||1.01|
|American Dad||:| :| :|||1.02|
|The Cleveland Show||already renewed||1.13|
|The Simpsons||already renewed||1.38|
|Family Guy||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.42|
|House||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.43|
There’s a wide gap between Fox’s scripted ratings “haves” (Glee, House, Sunday animation, Bones) and their “have nots” (Human Target, Lie To Me, Fringe, The Good Guys). There are no shows “in the middle” (not a single scripted show averages between 72% and 95% of Fox’s scripted ratings average).
Several of the “have nots” seem to have been renewed last season because this fall was to be a holding pattern waiting for X-Factor and Terra Nova (two shows, 3-4 hours) that were already known to be coming in the Fall of 2011 by last spring.
Fox’s mid-season schedule indicates they’re going to try to replace American Dad. Because of that, I consider American Dad a “toss up” for renewal next season. Whether Fox is successful in finding a replacement for American Dad is a completely different issue. On that, your guess is as good as mine.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.