NBC: ‘Chuck,’ ‘The Event,’ ‘Law & Order:LA,’ & ‘Parenthood’ Run Into Spring Followed By The Cancellation Bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through January 2, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Chuck||:| :| :|||0.86|
|Community||:| :| :|||0.90|
|Parenthood||:| :| :|||0.95|
|Law & Order: LA||:| :| :|||0.99|
|The Event||:cry: :cry:||1.01|
|30 Rock||already renewed||1.08|
|Law & Order: SVU||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.12|
|Outsourced||:) :) :) :)||1.21|
|The Office||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.70|
After a few weeks off, the cancellation bear is tanned, rested and ready.
Because so many of NBC’s new shows ratings started high and fell fast, the current Renew / Cancel Index gives a bit too optimistic a take on several shows relative prospects right now. That’ll all change next week when I begin using only 2011 ratings.
Take a good look at the table above, it’s the last time I’ll post a Renew / Cancel Index using Fall 2010 ratings for NBC shows.
Starting next week and going forward, the new Renew / Cancel Index tables will use only the ratings for shows on 1/3/11 and later.
Why do that?
In previous seasons, comparing the season ratings averages for shows that began in the spring to those that began in the fall proved a bit apples to oranges because the overall lowered spring ratings (partially caused by Daylight Savings Time as well as a variety of reasons) tended to understate the position of shows that began in the fall. When tested on last season’s ratings, beginning a new Index after New Year’s seemed to correct that apples to oranges comparison problem.
This post will always be available on the site, you can bookmark it, but I’ll have a link to it in all the spring posts as well.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.