The original post below appeared on 10/28/10, before American Idol's schedule shift from Tues/Wed to Wed/Thurs was announced. Live To Dance will still face Idol on the dates below, but it will be against the competition show, not the results show. I figured we could still revive the poll for a second go round since Live To Dance premieres tonight.
With the announcement that Paula Abdul's CBS's Live To Dance will premiere on January 4th and then move to Wednesdays at 8pm, and by my calculation will overlap on 3 Wednesdays with her former show American Idol (Jan 19, 26, Feb 2).
1/4/11 Update: Idol now set to premiere on Jan 19, so only will overlap with LTD on 3 days.
No sane person could imagine Paula pulling better ratings than American Idol, but I'd consider it a ratings upset if she did better than what CBS ran against Idol in those timeslots last season.
Week 1 (1/20/10): Old Christine, Gary Unmarried 1.9 rating
Week 2 (1/27/10): Old Christine, Gary Unmarried 1.4 rating (repeats)
Week 3 (2/3/10) Super Bowl commercial special: 2.8 rating
An average of a 2.03 adults 18-49 rating over the 4 weeks.
So, let's call it an upset if Paula averages anything over a 2.0 those 4 dates, under a 2.0 is a beat down, and exactly a 2.0 is a push.
Ratings beat down or upset? You make the call: