Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-16, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Wife||0.79|
|$#*! My Dad Says||1.00|
|Rules of Engagement||1.17|
|Mike & Molly||1.27|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.27|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.34|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.51|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed||1.62|
|Blue Bloods (F)||pending|
Lots of chatter about remarks by CBS president Nina Tassler that some have foolishly interpreted as guaranteeing renewal for :NY and :Miami:
"Both are doing incredibly well in new time periods, given what was there before," she insisted. "As long as those shows continue to be competitive and as long as fans continue to watch those shows, they'll continue to stay on the air."
Taking those "TV exec-speak" comments as any kind of guarantee of renewal for those two shows is just crazy fan wishful thinking. And even when an executive is certain they're going to renew a show, they sometimes change their minds.
The numbers for CBS's broadcast primetime schedule turnover argue otherwise.
CBS has for at least the last three seasons cancelled 4 hours of dramas so they could bring in new shows the following Fall. With Medium cancelled, andlikely to follow that still leaves two or more (considering mid-season 2011 replacements) hours of dramas that CBS will cancel if they hold to their typical pattern.
It's likely that at least one of either:NY or :Miami will be cancelled, and perhaps both. Even though it's ratings are above average, CBS has typically cancelled its lowest rated sitcom each season as well, and that puts $#*! in the "toss up" category.
I think CBS keeps one eye on The's Emmy and holds its nose over the show's ratings and brings it back, probably on Friday. We'll have to wait for trial run on Wednesday night for any more clarity on its prospects.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- - more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 averageby the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.