When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Last week, I tried an all-shows-in-one approach which also included shows already renewed and canceled. I got a lot of good feedback (thanks!) in real-time and implemented some of it to improve readability.
This week you'll notice more differences between the table below and the designations in the Renew/Cancel Index. For the most part, Bill is not prognosticating about what will happen in May, but rather what would happen by May if the season ended now.
I am taking more of a prognosticate now about what will happen in May approach. So at least for now you will see several shows that the R/C indices list as “likely” that will still be on the bubble in the Bubble Watch. Most of the differences at this point have to do with little data for the R/C Index after resetting for the second half of the season. I'd guess in another month they'll be 98% identical.
Only a couple of changes to the the table this week. One is that I've downgraded Perfect Couples to likely to be canceled. There's only a couple of weeks of data, but it's NBC's weakest link in its Thursday night comedy lineup. I've also downgraded The Cape to likely to be canceled. It keeps falling and even if manages to stabilize at last Monday's level (a 1.6 adults 18-49 rating), it's still likely to be canceled. Its ratings need to go up a bit to get back on the bubble.
The first two weeks of Friday Fringe should make fans happy, but for now, it's still on the bubble.
Edit: Forgot to mention that I changed Lie To Me from 'certain to be canceled' back to 'likely to be canceled' after the ratings gods mocked me.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| The Whole Truth | ABC | Already Canceled |
| My Generation | ABC | Already Canceled |
| MEDIUM | CBS | Already Canceled |
| Life Unexpected | CW | Already Canceled |
| Running Wilde | Fox | Already Canceled |
| The Good Guys | Fox | Already Canceled |
| Lone Star | Fox | Already Canceled |
| Outlaw | NBC | Already Canceled |
| Undercovers | NBC | Already Canceled |
| Detroit 1-8-7 | ABC | Certain To Be Canceled |
| No Ordinary Family | ABC | Certain To Be Canceled |
| The Defenders | CBS | Certain To Be Canceled |
| Human Target | Fox | Certain To Be Canceled |
| Chase | NBC | Certain To Be Canceled |
| Lie To Me | Fox | Likely To Be Canceled |
| V | ABC | Likely To Be Canceled |
| The Event | NBC | Likely To Be Canceled |
| Perfect Couples | NBC | Likely To Be Canceled |
| The Cape | NBC | Likely To Be Canceled |
| Brothers & Sisters | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Off The Map | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Better With You | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| CSI: Miami | CBS | On The Bubble |
| $#*! My Dad Says | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Good Wife | CBS | On The Bubble |
| American Dad | Fox | On The Bubble* |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Fringe | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Parenthood | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Chuck | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Community | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Law & Order: Los Angeles | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Harry's Law | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Outsourced | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely To Be Renewed |
| Hellcats | CW | Likely To Be Renewed |
| 90210' | CW | Likely To Be Renewed |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Likely To Be Renewed |
| Nikita | CW | Likely To Be Renewed |
| One Tree Hill | CW | Likely To Be Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Likely To Be Renewed |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely To Be Renewed |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | Certain To Be Renewed |
| The Mentalist | CBS | Certain To Be Renewed |
| CSI | CBS | Certain To Be Renewed |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain To Be Renewed |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain To Be Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Certain To Be Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Certain To Be Renewed |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain To Be Renewed |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | Certain To Be Renewed |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain To Be Renewed |
| Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain To Be Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Certain To Be Renewed |
| House | Fox | Certain To Be Renewed |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Certain To Be Renewed |
| The Office | NBC | Certain To Be Renewed |
| Castle | ABC | Already Renewed |
| Private Practice | ABC | Already Renewed |
| Cougar Town | ABC | Already Renewed |
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Already Renewed |
| The Middle | ABC | Already Renewed |
| Modern Family | ABC | Already Renewed |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Already Renewed |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Already Renewed |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Already Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Already Renewed |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Already Renewed |
| Glee | Fox | Already Renewed |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Already Renewed |
| Smallville | CW | Final Season |
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*Though I've seen no official confirmation as far as renewal for next season for 'American Dad' it will have enough episodes left to air some next season whether it's renewed or not. At this point nothing would surprise me much, including flipping 'Bobs Burgers' to the Sunday 7:30p timeslot and moving 'American Dad' back in the primary lineup.
