When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Both Fringe and Chuck suffered ratings setbacks this week, but for now both remain on the bubble. If I had my way both shows would stay on the bubble until renewal decisions are made in May, but at this point I think it's more likely that Chuck will accomplish that than Fringe.
If there were a Super Bowl for bubble shows, I'd want to see both Chuck and Fringe in the big game, but for now I have Chuck winning that showdown.
That's somewhat based on prognosticating about where the ratings will go from here and somewhat based on the differences between NBC and Fox. Even on Fridays, Fringe faces the tougher challenge than Chuck because Fox is in so much better shape than NBC.
Adjustments this week:
Over the last couple of weeks both 'Lie to Me' and now 'Human Target' were upgraded from certain cancellation to likely cancellation. While cancellation still seems likely for both shows, those decisions will be at least a little more difficult to make now.
- 'Chase' moved from 'Certain to be Canceled' to 'Already Canceled'
- 'Human Target' moved from 'Certain to be Canceled' to 'Likely to be Canceled'
- 'Off the Map' moved from 'On the Bubble' to 'Likely to be Canceled'
- 'Parenthood' moved from 'On the Bubble' to 'Likely to be Renewed'
- 'Harry's Law' moved from 'On the Bubble' to 'Likely to be Renewed'
- 'Bones' moved from 'Likely to be Renewed' to 'Certain to be Renewed'
- 'NCIS' moved from 'Certain to be Renewed' to 'Already Renewed'
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode are in the table below.
|The Whole Truth||ABC||Already Canceled|
|My Generation||ABC||Already Canceled|
|Life Unexpected||CW||Already Canceled|
|Running Wilde||Fox||Already Canceled|
|The Good Guys||Fox||Already Canceled|
|Lone Star||Fox||Already Canceled|
|Detroit 1-8-7||ABC||Certain To Be Canceled|
|No Ordinary Family||ABC||Certain To Be Canceled|
|The Defenders||CBS||Certain To Be Canceled|
|The Cape||NBC||Certain To Be Canceled|
|V||ABC||Likely To Be Canceled|
|Off The Map||ABC||Likely To Be Canceled|
|Human Target||Fox||Likely To Be Canceled|
|Lie To Me||Fox||Likely To Be Canceled|
|The Event||NBC||Likely To Be Canceled|
|Perfect Couples||NBC||Likely To Be Canceled|
|Brothers & Sisters||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Better With You||ABC||On The Bubble|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|CSI: Miami||CBS||On The Bubble|
|$#*! My Dad Says||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Good Wife||CBS||On The Bubble|
|American Dad*||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Bob's Burgers||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Fringe||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Chuck||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Community||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Law & Order: Los Angeles||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Outsourced||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Hellcats||CW||Likely To Be Renewed|
|90210'||CW||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Nikita||CW||Likely To Be Renewed|
|One Tree Hill||CW||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Parenthood||NBC||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Harry's Law||NBC||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Desperate Housewives||ABC||Certain To Be Renewed|
|The Mentalist||CBS||Certain To Be Renewed|
|CSI||CBS||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain To Be Renewed|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain To Be Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Supernatural||CW||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Bones||Fox||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Family Guy||Fox||Certain To Be Renewed|
|House||Fox||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Certain To Be Renewed|
|The Office||NBC||Certain To Be Renewed|
|Private Practice||ABC||Already Renewed|
|Cougar Town||ABC||Already Renewed|
|Grey's Anatomy||ABC||Already Renewed|
|The Middle||ABC||Already Renewed|
|Modern Family||ABC||Already Renewed|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Already Renewed|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Already Renewed|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||Already Renewed|
|The Simpsons||Fox||Already Renewed|
|Raising Hope||Fox||Already Renewed|
|30 Rock||NBC||Already Renewed|
*Though I've seen no official confirmation as far as renewal for next season for 'American Dad' it will have enough episodes left to air some next season whether it's renewed or not. At this point nothing would surprise me much, including flipping 'Bobs Burgers' to the Sunday 7:30p timeslot and moving 'American Dad' back in the primary lineup.