Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 6, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Defenders (F)||0.44|
|Blue Bloods (Wed)||0.64|
|The Good Wife||0.75|
|$#*! My Dad Says||0.93|
|Rules of Engagement||1.14|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.22|
|Mike & Molly||1.26|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.32|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.46|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed||1.58|
I wondered last week whether having a Friday timeslot may actually turn out to be a renewal advantage for Blue Bloods (compared to The Defenders).
Blue Bloods definitely has a better chance at renewal than The Defenders (which has none), but is its string of poorly rated Wednesday episodes putting it at more risk than if it had stayed on Friday? Perhaps.
While CBS's spring schedule has been a grab bag of new and repeat episodes so far, Blue Bloods Wednesday ratings have been the lowest each week for any of their non-Friday shows. [2.0, 2.1, 1.6]. Hardly a vote of confidence for Tom Selleck and crew.
CBS is likely to cancel at least two more hours of dramas (to go with Medium and The Defenders) in order to make room for new shows next Fall. Those hours will come from shows currently in the "toss up" range between renewal and cancellation. Whatever CBS keeps of the two spring dramas yet to premiere (Chaos, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior) would necessarily add to the hours of dramas they are likely to cancel.
Since CBS tends to cancel their lowest rated comedy of the season, regardless of ratings, and $#*! My Dad Says is below average rated as well, it's more likely to be cancelled than renewed.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.