CW: Could ‘Supernatural’ Renewal Really “Go Either Way”? Not If You’re Watching The Ratings
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 6, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|90210||:) :) :) :)||0.87|
|Gossip Girl||:) :) :) :)||0.87|
|Hellcats||:) :) :) :)||0.87|
|Nikita||:) :) :) :)||1.02|
|Supernatural (F)||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.02|
|Smallville (F)||final season||1.02|
|One Tree Hill||:) :) :) :)||1.07|
|Vampire Diaries||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.58|
There was a bit of a flurry in Twitter land recently when a well known entertainment site marked Supernatural’s renewal chances as “could go either way”.
If the plenty of other silliness in that site’s list didn’t dissuade you (not a single CBS scripted show “in the danger zone”? only one CBS scripted show “could go either way”, 8O ) the fact that Supernatural is above average for the CW with adults 18-49 despite airing on Friday should put even the most worried fans at ease. Unless cast or crew decide to call it quits, Supernatural will be back next season.
Unless, as some rumors suggest, One Tree Hill’s cast or crew wants to call it quits, all the other CW scripted shows look likely to be renewed for next season. They all have the ratings needed.
Life Unexpected’s season (and to anyone but the craziest of fans, series) finale was January 18.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.