Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 13, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Whole Truth||cancelled|
|No Ordinary Family||0.66|
|Brothers & Sisters||0.77|
|Off The Map||0.78|
|Better With You||0.87|
ABC's new sitcom Mr. Sunshine premiered with strong ratings last week. While, as is typical, they probably won't stay that strong, and following ABC's top rated Modern Family the show is certain to be a whipping boy for our retentionista commenters, it's so far, so good for renewal.
Things are looking less sunny for Better With You. It began the spring with a hope inducing 2.5 adults 18-49 rating, but followed that up with two 2.1 rated shows. It's hanging on to the "toss up" range, but at this point I think its best (only?) hope for season two is if ABC expands their comedy hours next season, which President Paul Lee has stated is his goal.
Detroit 1-8-7 and No Ordinary Family are certain to be cancelled at the end of the season. Both V and Off The Map are more likely to be cancelled than renewed.
The ratings say that Brothers & Sisters is more likely to be cancelled than renewed, but I'm making a judgement call and keeping it as a "toss up" until I see how Body of Proof does. I don't think that ABC would cancel B&S along with every single new drama this season.
I'd expect the apocalypse before I'd expect Desperate Housewives to not be renewed.
ABC's last chance for a hit drama this season looks to be Body of Proof, premiering in March.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.