Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 13, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Defenders (F)||0.40|
|Blue Bloods (Wed)||0.66|
|The Good Wife||0.74|
|$#*! My Dad Says||0.92|
|Rules of Engagement||1.11|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.21|
|Mike & Molly||1.23|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.30|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.42|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed||1.54|
Plenty of CBS fans continue to live in a dream world where not enough of CBS's current dramas will be cancelled to make room for new shows next season.
They need to wake up and smell the reality of CBS's scheduling situation.
With Medium cancelled, and after The Defenders leaves CBS's schedule (to certain cancellation), CBS will still have a spring schedule still filled with original scripted dramas after adding Chaos (at Friday 8pm) and Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior (at Wednesday 10pm).
Does anyone think that CBS's new show development folks are taking the year off?
Unless they are, and if CBS wants to add their typical 4 hours of new dramas for next fall, four hours of the late spring drama schedule will need to be cancelled.
Let's examine a few straws that are grasped at by fans to try and shoehorn in all those extra dramas:
1. They'll run half seasons of each show!
No evidence that CBS is going to start to do that with veteran dramas as they have done with sitcoms. They could always start, but I could also wake up tomorrow looking like Brad Pitt.
2. They'll eliminate an hour of reality for scripted dramas!
If anything, I'd argue the opposite, after getting beaten occasionally by ABC's unscripted Friday line up, CBS is more likely to eliminate an hour of scripted drama on Friday night for unscripted (but I'm not sure I'd bet on that yet either).
3. Chaos and Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior will both bomb!
While I don't predict future ratings, even if that happens, that still leaves 2 hours of dramas that need to be cancelled from the existing schedule.
4. They'll reduce their comedy hours and increase drama hours!
That's a stretch. Big Bang Theory on Thursday has done quite well considering the timeslot change, and CBS suffered for years with far lower ratings with the Old Christine / Gary Unmarried pair without reducing their overall comedy time.
5. CBS's new drama development folks really are taking the year off!
Since CBS tends to cancel their lowest rated comedy of the season, regardless of ratings, and $#*! My Dad Says is below average rated as well, it's more likely to be cancelled than renewed.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.