Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 13, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|One Tree Hill||0.99|
|Smallville (F)||final season||1.01|
While I headlined a CW Renew / Cancel post with this back in November, the "I think Nikita will be cancelled" meme has made its way back into our comments.
Folks point to the fact that Nikita drew just a 0.7 adults 18-49 rating last week. So what. One Tree Hill and Hellcats did too, and Gossip Girl did just a tenth better. It doesn't matter that Nikita ratings are terrible compared to other broadcast network's shows. The CW only renews or cancels its own shows!
Others point to the fact that Nikita has the third lowest (other than Smallville & Supernatural) women 18-34 ratings for the CW this spring. In fact, I have no systematic evidence that the CW makes renewal decisions using women 18-34 ratings, regardless of what they say their "target demo" is. There's plenty of evidence though that they make decisions that correlate to their shows relative adults 18-49 ratings.
Unless, as some rumors suggest, One Tree Hill’s cast or crew wants to call it quits, all the current CW scripted shows (except Smallville, of course) look likely to be renewed for next season.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.