NBC: ‘Chuck’ & ‘Outsourced’ Now Closest To The Cancellation Bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 13, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Outsourced||:| :| :|||0.81|
|Chuck||:| :| :|||0.83|
|Harry’s Law||:) :) :) :)||0.91|
|Community||:) :) :) :)||0.92|
|Parenthood||:) :) :) :)||0.96|
|Law & Order: SVU||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.19|
|Parks & Recreation||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.25|
|The Office||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.76|
|Law & Order: LA||pending|
As NBC’s season moves further into spring, the cancellation bear’s few remaining potential NBC victims* each seem to engender strong feelings among our commenters.
Chuck, beloved by many of our commenters, also attracts commenters that aren’t necessarily anti-fans of the show, as much as they are anti-fans of its fans. It’s been walking the cancellation and renewal tightrope since it premiered, and looks to remain a “toss up” again this season down to the wire.
Outsourced seems to be despised by many for its subject matter. It’s in a unique situation. It was NBC’s #2 rated scripted show last fall, but with a timeslot change its ratings fell this spring into the “toss up” range. In four years, we’ve not seen another broadcast show so relatively highly rated have its timeslot changed in mid season, so our available historical precedent is lacking.
Harry’s Law ratings fell sharply in its third week to just a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating (and preliminary ratings, not yet in the calculation above, stayed at a 1.7 in the fourth week). Next week it’s heading into the “toss up” range.
*Since they’ve yet to premiere this spring, I’m not considering The Event (which likely has dim prospects considering its Fall ratings), or Law & Order: LA (which may have been disappointing, but seemed likely to be renewed based on its Fall ratings)
For folks who’ve been asleep for the last month or so, Perfect Couples and The Cape are both headed for cancellation.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.