When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
The Renew/Cancel reports are delayed because we won't see the Sunday finals until Wednesday. Bill is on vacation but still plans on doing the indices, look for them late Wednesday.
Someone e-mailed asking whether it was possible that NBC would cancel all its bubble shows. I'd say it is. It wouldn't surprise me if NBC does that and at this point I consider that option a toss up.
The decisions with Community, Outsourced and Parks & Recreation will be interesting.
Community fans can rightfully say "but we have to go up against The Big Bang Theory AND American Idol, we'd do as well as Parks and Recreation at 9:30!" But Outsourced fans can sing a variation of that tune, too. I've still got Outsourced on the bubble due to its 9:30 performance. Its last original at 9:30 (a 2.5 rating) was better than Parks and Recreation's 2.2 rating last Thursday.
I've come to my senses after Monday and moved Harry's Law to the bubble from "likely to be renewed."
Money matters, so Warner Bros could certainly entice NBC to renew Chuck again with deep discounts. But Chuck doesn't seemed destined for big syndicated money, so steep discounting on that basis seems unlikely. Of course, to quote Charles Barkley: I may be wrong...but I doubt it. Fans should cross their fingers and hope the ratings goes up. That's what I'll be doing.
Shows that average 90% of the network's scripted average are typically renewed, but for broadcast networks not named "The CW", the averages aren't usually as low as NBC's where since January, 90% of the scripted average works out to less than a 2.0 adults 18-49 rating (technically a little less than a 1.9 rating).
Here's a look at NBC's scripted shows:
|The Cape||NBC||Certain To Be Canceled|
|Perfect Couples||NBC||Certain To Be Canceled|
|The Event||NBC||Likely To Be Canceled|
|Chuck||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Community||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Law & Order: Los Angeles||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Outsourced||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Harry's Law||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Parenthood||NBC||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely To Be Renewed|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Certain To Be Renewed|
|The Office||NBC||Certain To Be Renewed|
|30 Rock||NBC||Already Renewed|
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode are in the table below.