CBS: Shepherding Ratings Misfits Into Syndication; How Low Can ‘Good Wife,’ & ‘Blue Bloods’ Go?
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 20, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Defenders (F)||:oops:||0.42|
|Blue Bloods (F)||:| :| :|||0.51|
|CSI:NY (F)||:| :| :|||0.58|
|Blue Bloods (Wed)||:| :| :|||0.66|
|The Good Wife||:| :| :|||0.73|
|CSI: Miami||:| :| :|||0.80|
|$#*! My Dad Says||:cry: :cry:||0.92|
|Hawaii Five-0||:) :) :) :)||0.97|
|The Mentalist||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.00|
|Mad Love||:) :) :) :)||1.02|
|CSI||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.03|
|Criminal Minds||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.09|
|Rules of Engagement||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.12|
|Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||:) :) :) :)||1.12|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.19|
|Mike & Molly||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.25|
|How I Met Your Mother||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.30|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.39|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed||1.52|
CBS’s head programmer Kelly Kahl is balancing the fact that some of his 10pm show’s ratings are woeful (for CBS) with the objective of shepherding them through enough (~4) seasons so they can be sold into syndication.
Does that mean he’ll tolerate any ratings from his 10pm shows just to get them into syndication?
That being that case, how low can a CBS 10pm show’s ratings go before the current advertising revenues forgone (or the chance a new show would be more valuable) trump the presumed future syndication value of an existing ratings misfit?
Blue Bloods’ 1.5 rating last Friday?
The Good Wife’s 1.9 (preliminary) rating last night?
You could ask a similar question about the what low the ratings limit is before adding more episodes for the already syndicated CSI:Miami & CSI:NY isn’t worth it.
We’ve always had a ratings “grading curve” for Friday show renewals, but depending on what CBS does this season with its 10pm shows we might need to work out a grading curve for 10pm shows as well.
Regardless, the fact that CBS will want to premiere new dramas next fall, and that three drama hours from their late spring schedule will still need to be cancelled (not counting Medium and The Defenders).
The premiere ratings for spin-off drama Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior were very good, particularly vs. many of CBS’s 10pm shows (see above). The premiere ratings for sitcom Mad Love weren’t as strong, starting below the average in that timeslot for Rules of Engagement. If the ratings could hold at that level, the show would have a reasonable chance, but since ratings typically don’t stay at their premiere levels, that’s a worrying start for the show.
Since CBS tends to cancel their lowest rated comedy of the season, regardless of ratings, and $#*! My Dad Says is below average rated as well, it’s more likely to be cancelled than renewed.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.