Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 20, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|One Tree Hill||0.97|
|Smallville (F)||final season||1.04|
After last night's (prelminary) 0.6 adults 18-49 rating for Hellcats, there's been a mad rush in our comments to get on the "Hellcats to be cancelled" bandwagon.
Take it from someone accused of jumping the gun on a weekly basis, that's jumping the gun.
No question a 0.6 rating is woeful, but nearly all the recent ratings for Gossip Girl, 90210, Nikita (and until last night) One Tree Hill have been nearly as woeful.
I'm not sure the CW has the ability/will/money to premiere 3 new dramas next fall, I'm certain they can't premiere seven.
As for what the ratings say, unless, as some rumors suggest, One Tree Hill’s cast or crew wants to call it quits, all the current CW scripted shows (except Smallville, of course) look likely to be renewed for next season.
One new idea that the current CW situation has raised to me is to eliminate the ratings of any show already announced to be in its final season (like Smallville) from my network average calculation. It makes logical sense, since that show is no longer an option for next season. It's something I'll test come the end of this season.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.