Bubble Watch: Many Downgrades, Including 'Fringe' and 'Outsourced'

Categories: 1-Featured,Bubble Watch

Written By

February 27th, 2011

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Only one upgrade for the week, but several shows renewal prospects dimmed.

Upgraded:

American Dad: now already renewed.

Downgraded:

Mr. Sunshine: now on the bubble
Better With You: now likely to be canceled
Brothers & Sisters: now likely to be canceled
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior: now on the bubble
Mad Love: now likely to be Canceled
Fringe: now likely to be canceled
Outsourced: now likely to be canceled

Bill wrote about Brothers & Sisters in the ABC Renew/Cancel Index, and I don’t have anything to add.

Both Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior and Mr. Sunshine have tumbled vast distances since their premieres and their stay on the bubble could be short.  At least Mr. Sunshine can play the “I had to deal with American Idol” bingo square, and there will be another opportunity to play it again in the coming week. Whoops, Mr. Sunshine catches a break and airs against Traffic Light this weekSuspect Behavior catches a bit of a break this coming Wednesday when Law & Order: SVU will be a repeat.

Given the current turmoil with Two and a Half Men it is perhaps too soon to shuffle Mad Love into likely to be canceled territory, but its two week trend is not a good one (yes, I know if it was on NBC with those numbers it would be certain to be renewed, alas, it’s on CBS).

After six Friday episodes Fringe looks more likely to be canceled than renewed at the end of the season.

Because of how Outsourced performed when it was on at 9:30p (better than Parks & Recreation is currently performing), it was difficult to downgrade it to “likely to be canceled” but its ratings at 10:30pm say that’s the case. It doesn’t look like NBC has done its comedy night right, but it could’ve been worse.

Some have suggested the CW itself is on the bubble, but we’ve heard such talk for the past four seasons. Assuming the CW survives yet again, all of its shows besides The Vampire Diaries and Supernatural can’t be on the bubble!  Bill makes the good point that there are limits to the number of new shows the CW can afford to launch next season. Currently the CW needs at least two new shows next season.

Particularly if the rumors are true that those involved with One Tree Hill don’t want to do another season, CW may have more holes than it can afford to fill.   Some have suggested that CW could cancel Hellcats (and Nikita) and replace it with inexpensive scripted shows. But the CW is reported to be a money loser as a network that makes it up for its parents with international licensing, DVDs, etc. Those ancillary revenue streams don’t exist (or aren’t nearly as lucrative) for unscripted shows.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode are in the table below.

My Generation ABC Already Canceled
The Whole Truth ABC Already Canceled
Medium CBS Already Canceled
Life Unexpected CW Already Canceled
Lone Star Fox Already Canceled
Running Wilde Fox Already Canceled
The Good Guys Fox Already Canceled
Chase NBC Already Canceled
Outlaw NBC Already Canceled
Undercovers NBC Already Canceled
Detroit 1-8-7 ABC Certain To Be Canceled
No Ordinary Family ABC Certain To Be Canceled
The Defenders CBS Certain To Be Canceled
Traffic Light Fox Certain To Be Canceled
Perfect Couples NBC Certain To Be Canceled
The Cape NBC Certain To Be Canceled
Off The Map ABC Likely To Be Canceled
V ABC Likely To Be Canceled
Brothers & Sisters ABC Likely To Be Canceled
Better With You ABC Likely To Be Canceled
$#*! My Dad Says CBS Likely To Be Canceled
Mad Love CBS Likely To Be Canceled
Bob's Burgers Fox Likely To Be Canceled
Human Target Fox Likely To Be Canceled
Lie To Me Fox Likely To Be Canceled
The Chicago Code Fox Likely To Be Canceled
Fringe Fox Likely To Be Canceled
The Event NBC Likely To Be Canceled
Outsourced NBC Likely To Be Canceled
Mr. Sunshine ABC On The Bubble
Blue Bloods CBS On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior CBS On The Bubble
Chuck NBC On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Harry's Law NBC On The Bubble
Law & Order: Los Angeles NBC On The Bubble
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely To Be Renewed
Rules of Engagement CBS Likely To Be Renewed
90210' CW Likely To Be Renewed
Gossip Girl CW Likely To Be Renewed
Hellcats CW Likely To Be Renewed
Nikita CW Likely To Be Renewed
One Tree Hill CW Likely To Be Renewed
Parenthood NBC Likely To Be Renewed
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely To Be Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Certain To Be Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Certain To Be Renewed
CSI CBS Certain To Be Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Certain To Be Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Certain To Be Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain To Be Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Certain To Be Renewed
Supernatural CW Certain To Be Renewed
Vampire Diaries CW Certain To Be Renewed
Bones Fox Certain To Be Renewed
Family Guy Fox Certain To Be Renewed
House Fox Certain To Be Renewed
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain To Be Renewed
The Office NBC Certain To Be Renewed
Castle ABC Already Renewed
Cougar Town ABC Already Renewed
Grey's Anatomy ABC Already Renewed
Modern Family ABC Already Renewed
Private Practice ABC Already Renewed
The Middle ABC Already Renewed
NCIS CBS Already Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Already Renewed
Two and a Half Men CBS Already Renewed
American Dad Fox Already Renewed
Glee Fox Already Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Already Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Already Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Already Renewed
30 Rock NBC Already Renewed
Smallville CW Final Season

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