Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 27, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Defenders (F)||0.42|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.55|
|Blue Bloods (Wed)||0.67|
|The Good Wife||0.73|
|$#*! My Dad Says||0.93|
|Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||0.98|
|Rules of Engagement||1.09|
|Mike & Molly||1.23|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.23|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.29|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.39|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed||1.54|
Unless you just arrived from Mars, you'd know that CBS was having a bit of trouble recently with , its top rated sitcom. Some fans of CBS's marginally rated sitcoms ($#*! , ) are wondering whether a implosion might save their shows.
Maybe. One of them. Perhaps as a mid-season replacement.
While desperate fans often hope for their likely to be cancelled shows will be salvaged as mid-season replacements, the only network that does that regularly, and just with sitcoms, is CBS. Were TAAHM not in doubt, it's likely both SMDS and ML would be cancelled. On the chance that TAAHM doesn't return at all next fall (I have no guess as to that, assign your own probability), CBS has only 4 veteran sitcoms certainly returning (Rules, HIMYM, BBT and M&M), and my guess is they'd likely renew eitheror SMDS in some capacity.
While my partner in crime has as a bubble show, he projects ahead. The Renew / Cancel Index predicts what would happen if the season ended *today* , and last week CM:SB ratings were 87% of CBS's scripted average. That's still in the "likely to be renewed" range. For now.:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- - more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 averageby the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.