Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 27, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||cancelled|
|Human Target (F)||0.47|
|Lie To Me||0.72|
|The Chicago Code||0.81|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||1.02|
While examining the available time in the Fox schedule for next Fall seems to happen weekly in our comments, I thought I'd do it here for everyone this week.
With 10 Monday-Friday hours to program (Saturday & Sunday have no effect on drama scheduling), Fox has these shows announced/likely to be on the schedule:
- House (1)
- Terra Nova (1)
- Bones (1)
- Glee (1)
- Raising Hope (0.5)/ New sitcom (0.5)
- X Factor (3?)
- Gordon Ramsay cooking reality (1)
That's nine hours worth of shows out of ten available hours. Fox also has six new drama pilots ordered, four of them would be produced by Fox.
Might Fox hold off on Gordon Ramsay for the Fall? Maybe.
Might Fox not premiere another new Fall drama (besides Terra Nova)? Maybe.
Might X Factor not be three hours / week? Maybe.
Under any reasonably likely scenario though there's one hour available to shows not on the list above, so there's effectively no chance that both Chicago Code and Fringe make it to next Fall.
In an either / or situation it's not an apples to apples ratings handicapping situation. Fringe's recent 1.5 rating on Friday is 71% of The Chicago Code's recent 2.1 rating on Monday. That's right on the 30% "Friday Factor" I apply to Friday show ratings for comparison to the rest of the week.
In the game of musical chairs for next Fall's dramas, it's not clear there's still a chair open for either, but there's certainly not two chairs open.
Both Lie To Me and Human Target are more likely to be cancelled than renewed. Traffic Light is certain to be cancelled.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.