Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-March 13, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Defenders (F)||0.45|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.58|
|Blue Bloods (Wed)||0.68|
|The Good Wife||0.75|
|Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||0.92|
|$#*! My Dad Says||0.95|
|Rules of Engagement||1.06|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.23|
|Mike & Molly||1.24|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.29|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.42|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed*||1.56|
How many ratings points (and lost ad revenue) is critical acclaim worth to CBS?
CSI: Miami is averaging a 2.35 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday night this spring, and The Good Wife is averaging a 2.14 rating on Tuesday. CSI: Miami already has a syndication deal, The Good Wife is being shepherded towards syndication.
Is The Good Wife's critical acclaim worth 0.2 ratings points worth of advertising revenue?
Might the potential syndication deal for The Good Wife lag what's possible for additional syndicated episodes of CSI:Miami?
A similar question could be asked about TGW vs. CSI:NY after allowing for a "Friday factor" applied to CSI:NY's 1.76 ratings average.
Something's gotta give. CBS has a full slate of dramas this spring (once Chaos moves to 8pm Friday), and they'll likely want to premiere at least 3 new dramas next fall, so cancellations will have to hit somewhere.
Airing after a repeat, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior ratings fell sharply. It's average still says "more likely to be renewed than cancelled", but the ratings in the weeks ahead may change that.
The Defenders is finished, and certain to be cancelled.
The only hope for the marginal CBS sitcoms Mad Love and $#*! My Dad Says is that the Two And A Half Men trouble removes the show from next season's line up. I'd guess that as highly unlikely, but that's just a guess.
*TAAHM received a two year renewal last season, through spring 2012. With the Charlie Sheen firing, the future of the show is at least somewhat uncertain.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.