Fox: Tea Leaves Keep ‘Lie To Me’ & ‘The Chicago Code’ Toss Ups For Renewal
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-March 13, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||cancelled|
|Fringe (F)||:cry: :cry:||0.59|
|Lie To Me||:| :| :|||0.71|
|The Chicago Code||:| :| :|||0.78|
|Human Target||:cry: :cry:||0.81|
|Bob’s Burgers||:cry: :cry:||0.93|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||0.96|
|Bones||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.25|
|House||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.37|
While the Renew / Cancel Index is all about the ratings, I’m not above doing a little tea leaf reading. The fact that Lie To Me and The Chicago Code will be airing repeats during Fox’s summer primetime schedule has me floating them up into the “toss up” range for renewal for next season. Otherwise, they’d both be “more likely to be cancelled than renewed”.
Yes, I know that Fringe will continue airing repeats on Saturday late night during the summer, but it’s not a Fox production (as Lie To Me and The Chicago Code are), what little chance those two shows have for renewal is even less for Fringe.
As I noted recently, there may or may not be a single slot for an existing marginal drama (Fringe, The Chicago Code, Human Target, Lie To Me) on next Fall’s Fox schedule. There won’t be two.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.