Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-March 20, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Defenders (F)||0.45|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.58|
|Blue Bloods (Wed)||0.68|
|The Good Wife||0.75|
|Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||0.91|
|$#*! My Dad Says||0.95|
|Rules of Engagement||1.06|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.24|
|Mike & Molly||1.24|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.30|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.42|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed*||1.57|
Every week, after reading that I have four CBS dramas (Blue Bloods, CSI: Miami, CSI:NY, The Good Wife) "on the bubble" (50/50 chance of renewal or cancellation), several commenters are certain to point out that we're the only site that thinks that one or more of those CBS dramas isn't an automatic renewal.
Here's a question for all those commenters. Those sites that you're fond of citing, how many CBS dramas (not counting Medium and The Defenders) do they think are in danger of being cancelled?
If it isn't at least two right now (and three after Chaos joins the schedule next week), they're either kidding you or kidding themselves. CBS is almost certainly going to premiere three new dramas next Fall (as they have in recent years), and they'll have to make room on their schedule to do it.
For example, there's a popular entertainment site, that also publishes a weekly magazine that in their 3/11 "TV Schedule Scorecard" has not a single CBS drama in "the danger zone" and only The Defenders rated as "could go either way". C'mon.
Kidding you or kidding themselves? You be the judge.
Back in the real world, The Defenders is finished, and certain to be cancelled. The only hope for the marginal CBS sitcoms Mad Love and $#*! My Dad Says is that the Two And A Half Men trouble removes the show from next season's line up. I'd guess that as highly unlikely, but there's at least some uncertainty.
*TAAHM received a two year renewal last season, through spring 2012. With the Charlie Sheen firing, the future of the show is at least somewhat uncertain.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.