NBC: “Chuck’s” All Alone On The Bubble
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-March 20, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Chuck||:| :| :|||0.86|
|Harry’s Law||:) :) :) :)||0.92|
|Parenthood||:) :) :) :)||1.01|
|Parks & Recreation||renewed||1.22|
|Law & Order: SVU||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.25|
Same thing, different year. Once again Chuck is on NBC’s bubble heading into the home stretch of the season. And this season it’s currently NBC’s only show (except for, potentially, Law & Order: LA) who’s fate with the cancellation bear seems to be in doubt. Chuck’s current Index of 0.86 is right on the edge between renewal and cancellation based on last year’s results. (last night’s preliminary results not yet in the calculations above)
Those who’ll comment that Chuck’s fallen so far it has to be off the bubble should note that last week Chuck’s 1.6 rating was above average for new NBC scripted episodes on the week. (admittedly, there were no new Office or L&O:SVU episodes).
Even once last night’s dip is factored in, Harry’s Law still looks to maintain its position of more likely to be renewed than cancelled.
The Office, Parks & Recreation and Community were all renewed last week. Some wondered if Community would be renewed. I didn’t.
Perfect Couples and The Event are both certain to be cancelled. The Cape is off NBC’s schedule, and its last episode was only available online. The sane will realize that’s as close to a cancellation announcement as they’re going to get. Outsourced is still more likely to be cancelled than renewed.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.