NBC: ‘Chuck’ Still On A Tightrope, With The Cancellation Bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-March 27, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Chuck||:| :| :|||0.85|
|Harry’s Law||:) :) :) :)||0.91|
|Parenthood||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.02|
|Parks & Recreation||renewed||1.22|
|Law & Order: SVU||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.26|
Chuck continues to walk the renewal and cancellation tightrope with the cancellation bear, (mixed metaphor alert!) but if last week’s relative ratings hold, it will be slipping out of the “toss up” range before the end of the season. The rating average for Chuck still puts it in the “toss up” range, but last week alone it was at just 76% of NBC’s scripted show ratings average, that’s out of the “toss up” range.
Harry’s Law ratings have dipped, but it’s still hanging on at the bottom of the “more likely to be renewed than cancelled” range.
Perfect Couples and The Event are both certain to be cancelled. The Cape is off NBC’s schedule, and its last episode was only available online. The sane will realize that’s as close to a cancellation announcement as they’re going to get. Outsourced is still more likely to be cancelled than renewed.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.