CBS: ‘CSI:Miami’ Above A Toss Up; ‘CM: Suspect Behavior’ Could Go Either Way; ‘Chaos’ Is DOA
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – April 3, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Defenders (F)||:oops:||0.45|
|The Defenders (Wed only)||:oops:||0.53|
|Blue Bloods (F)||:| :| :|||0.59|
|CSI:NY (F)||:| :| :|||0.62|
|Blue Bloods (Wed)||:| :| :|||0.69|
|The Good Wife||:| :| :|||0.75|
|CSI: Miami||:) :) :) :)||0.86|
|Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||:| :| :|||0.88|
|Mad Love||:cry: :cry:||0.88|
|$#*! My Dad Says||:cry: :cry:||0.96|
|Hawaii Five-0||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.01|
|The Mentalist||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.03|
|Rules of Engagement||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.03|
|CSI||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.05|
|Criminal Minds||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.18|
|Mike & Molly||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.23|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.23|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.27|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.41|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed*||1.58|
There’s still more uncertainly around the CBS marginal dramas than any other network’s and the latest ratings clarify some show’s futures, while clouding others.
CSI: Miami has elevated its ratings average into the range that indicates likely renewal, regardless of syndication revenues (which it has as well) or cost issues, so I’ve moved it into the “more likely to be renewed than cancelled” category.
On the other hand, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior ratings continue to drift lower (its average does not yet reflect the extent to which recent ratings have fallen) and the show is now in the “toss up” range between renewal and cancellation.
There is no uncertainty around the future of Chaos. After premiering with the lowest rating for a new episode of a CBS scripted show this season (tieing both already cancelled Medium and certain to be cancelled The Defenders) Chaos is certain to be cancelled.
And no, CBS does not regret removing The Defenders from its schedule. The fact that Chaos did terribly doesn’t change the fact that The Defenders did terribly as well and had no chance at renewal.
The only hope for the marginal CBS sitcoms Mad Love and $#*! My Dad Says is that the Two And A Half Men trouble removes the show from next season’s line up. I’d guess that as highly unlikely, but there’s at least some uncertainty.
*TAAHM received a two year renewal last season, through spring 2012. With the Charlie Sheen firing, the future of the show is at least somewhat uncertain.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.