Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 - April 10, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Defenders (F)||0.46|
|The Defenders (Wed only)||0.53|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.59|
|Blue Bloods (Wed)||0.70|
|The Good Wife||0.75|
|Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||0.87|
|$#*! My Dad Says||0.97|
|Rules of Engagement||1.02|
|Mike & Molly||1.24|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.26|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.28|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.41|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed*||1.60|
Like recent seasons we can assume that CBS will likely premiere three new dramas next Fall (and probably two comedies, but I'll leave that discussion for another week). The question which three CBS dramas will be cancelled to make room for those new dramas is, as usual, a bit tricky.
The adults 18-49 ratings for the CBS dramas in doubt are low, and consequently so is their current advertising revenue potential.
However, syndication revenues are the primary reason that CBS would keep any of its ratings laggards on their schedule, and we simply don't know what those revenues are (or for newer shows, what CBS thinks they might be). You can play the guessing game along with the rest of us.
The costs of the shows might also play a factor, but other than guessing that newer shows are generally cheaper than older shows, we can't get a better idea of that either.
Even though Chaos' cancellation is a certainty, I left it in the poll below because its still on the schedule (at least as I write this). Not quite an equivalent on the other side of the ledger, the Renew / Cancel Index has: Miami as more likely to be renewed than cancelled, but I'll acknowledge that reasonable people might disagree about that, so I left it in the poll as well. With both off the schedule, and certain to be cancelled, I didn't bother to include it.
Which CBS dramas will be cancelled?
(Vote for as many as you'd like. Rose colored glasses wearers will pick fewer than three,, perhaps anticipating a CBS Friday that's not 100% scripted, might pick more)
Note (that should be unnecessary): As with all our polls, and all internet polls in general, the outcome is entirely meaningless and meant for the purposes of entertainment only.
The only hope for the marginal CBS sitcomsand $#*! is that the trouble removes the show from next season's line up. I'd guess that as highly unlikely, but there's at least some uncertainty.
*TAAHM received a two year renewal last season, through spring 2012. With the Charlie Sheen firing, the future of the show is at least somewhat uncertain.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- - more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 averageby the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.