CW: ‘Vampire Diaries’ Strangled By ‘Idol’; ‘Nikita’ Stumbles; Does That Help ‘Hellcats’?
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – April 3, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Hellcats||:| :| :|||0.79|
|Gossip Girl||:) :) :) :)||0.87|
|90210||:) :) :) :)||0.87|
|Nikita||:) :) :) :)||0.92|
|One Tree Hill||:) :) :) :)||0.96|
|Smallville (F)||final season||1.06|
|Supernatural (F)||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.09|
|Vampire Diaries||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.53|
After American Idol premiered this spring, Vampire Diares ratings fell, and stayed down. Last week’s 1.2 adults 18-49 rating was a season low. Of course Vampire Diaries is in no danger of cancellation, but might its plunge make Hellcats renewal chances better?
At the other end of the spectrum, Nikita’s return to new episodes last week drew just a 0.7 rating. Suddenly, the 0.6 rating that Hellcats finished its early spring run doesn’t look nearly so bad.
Will both trends help Hellcats get renewed? When the ratings of pretty much every show on the CW are in decline the threshold for renewal is constantly moving down and if Hellcats can hold steady its chances for renewal improve.
Hellcats still doesn’t return with new episodes until April 19. We’ll have more ratings news for it then.
I still don’t think the CW will want to premiere three new shows next fall, but it’s not out of the question and if they want/need to cancel another show because of its ratings (as opposed to crew/cast fatigue) it will be Hellcats. If the cast/crew decide to call it quits One Tree Hill might not be back, but it won’t be because of the ratings, and I don’t try and predict cancellations for that reason.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.