NBC: ‘Chuck’ vs. The Cancellation Bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – April 10, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Harry’s Law||:) :) :) :)||0.90|
|Parenthood||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.02|
|Parks & Recreation||renewed||1.25|
|Law & Order: SVU||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.28|
|Law & Order: LA||:cry: :cry:|
There’s no other show between Chuck and NBC’s cancellation bear now, and Chuck’s recent ratings suggest that the bear will be catching the show before the end of the season. Could there be a Warner Brothers slashes the license fee to give the show another season renewal “miracle”? Maybe. But that’s not the way to bet.
Law & Order: LA ratings (not yet in the calculations above) stumbled badly in its “retooled” return last night, unless the ratings recover sharply in the coming weeks it’s a goner.
Even though the Harry’s Law finale plunged to a series low 1.4 adults 18-49 rating against the NCAA Men’s Basketball Final its overall ratings make it more likely to be renewed than cancelled. If you’re a low rated show, it’s best to be on NBC!
The Event is certain to be cancelled. Perfect Couples was pulled off NBC’s schedule with episodes left to air. That, plus its woeful ratings, equal cancellation. The Cape is off NBC’s schedule, and its last episode was only available online. The sane will realize that’s as close to a cancellation announcement as they’re going to get. Outsourced is still more likely to be cancelled than renewed.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.