We're in the home stretch of the broadcast season and the week of upfront meetings where fall schedules are announced for the broadcast networks kicks off five weeks from today with NBC. Those fall schedules clear up any lingering questions about which shows will be renewed. My guess is that a decision on Chuck will go down to the wire like it usually does.
At this point that the remaining ratings for this season probably don't factor into NBC's decision as much as how much it likes its pilots and pricing from Warner Bros. But if NBC and Warner Bros are negotiating, we won't get any of those details. We will at least see the the ratings.
Will a fan campaign aimed at begging Nielsen households to watch Chuck influence your prediction? It didn't influence mine, but my guess is Chuck will go up a little bit anyway. I predict a 1.5 adults 18-49 rating.