ABC: Can ‘Happy Endings’ Hang Onto Happy?
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – April 17, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Whole Truth||cancelled|
|No Ordinary Family||:oops:||0.62|
|Off The Map||:oops:||0.70|
|Brothers & Sisters||:| :| :|||0.80|
|Better With You||:cry: :cry:||0.81|
|Mr. Sunshine||:| :| :|||0.91|
|Body Of Proof||:) :) :) :)||1.05|
|Happy Endings||:| :| :|||1.07|
|Desperate Housewives||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.31|
Happy Endings started with a 2.8 adults 18-49 rating last Wednesday at 9:30pm and followed it with a 2.3 rating at 10pm. ABC’s doubling up HE this week, running two new episodes on the 10pm hour. Holding a 2.3 rating at 10pm likely means renewal on ABC, but further declines will put the show in jeopardy.
Last Tuesday, I wondered if Better With You still had a small chance at renewal. After last week’s 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on its return, what little chance it had seems to be gone.
Brothers & Sisters continues to drift towards the “more likely to be cancelled than renewed” range, it’s at the very bottom of the “toss up” range. ABC’s new Mr. Sunshine still looks like a toss up for renewal. Even off the air, V continues to edge closer to the “toss up” range as the rest of ABC’s scripted show ratings slide.
Off the Map, Detroit 1-8-7 and No Ordinary Family are certain to be cancelled at the end of the season.
I’d expect the apocalypse before I’d expect Desperate Housewives to not be renewed.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.