Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 - April 17, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Defenders (F)||0.46|
|The Defenders (Wed only)||0.54|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.60|
|Blue Bloods (Wed)||0.70|
|The Good Wife||0.75|
|Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||0.88|
|$#*! My Dad Says||0.97|
|Rules of Engagement||1.03|
|Mike & Molly||1.20|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.24|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.25|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.42|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed*||1.61|
Of course Chaos led our reader poll last week of which (of the likely three) CBS dramas will be cancelled to make room for the likely three new dramas that CBS will premiere next Fall. There never was any doubt that Chaos would be cancelled, the only question was when, and CBS ended the suspense this week.
The next two CBS dramas that will be cancelled are a lot trickier to pick. Varied arguments could be made for any of them (some more serious than others). And against them.
- CSI:NY - already syndicated. Likely relatively expensive.
- CSI: Miami - highest rated of the marginal dramas, already syndicated, plus sunglasses. Likely relatively expensive.
- The Good Wife - awards, not to mention....awards, plus the news that show principals are being locked into multi-year deals. Worst rated CBS scripted Sunday-Thursday show.
- Blue Bloods - Tom Selleck, and fans who'll mention it draws a squinty jillion average viewers at 10pm on Friday no less! Worst rated scripted show still on CBS.
- Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior - It's a spinoff, and CBS loves them their spin offs! It's a procedural, and CBS loves them their procedurals! Ratings still declining, when will they stop?
The only hope for the marginal CBS sitcoms Mad Love and $#*! My Dad Says is that the Two And A Half Men trouble removes the show from next season's line up. I'd guess that as highly unlikely, but there's at least some uncertainty.
*TAAHM received a two year renewal last season, through spring 2012. With the Charlie Sheen firing, the future of the show is at least somewhat uncertain.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.