CW: Ratings Falling & Management Changing; Is That Good Or Bad For My Shows?
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – April 17, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Hellcats||:| :| :|||0.79|
|Gossip Girl||:) :) :) :)||0.86|
|90210||:) :) :) :)||0.86|
|Nikita||:) :) :) :)||0.91|
|One Tree Hill||:) :) :) :)||0.95|
|Smallville (F)||final season||1.06|
|Supernatural (F)||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.06|
|Vampire Diaries||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.51|
In case you were sleeping through the day today, CW’s Monday line up returned to ratings of 0.8 and 0.7 for adults 18-49. Those 0.6 ratings for Hellcats don’t look quite so bad, do they?
And the long time head of the CW, Dawn Ostroff, will be stepping down within a month or so. Typically, a management change bodes negatively for the marginal shows created by the predecessors, but Dawn will stick around through the Fall schedule being announced, so that might not be the case this spring.
Lots of potential wild cards for the CW announcements this May.
Management change or not, I still don’t think the CW will want to premiere three new shows next fall, but it’s not out of the question and if they want/need to cancel another show because of its ratings (as opposed to crew/cast fatigue) it will be Hellcats. If the cast/crew decide to call it quits One Tree Hill might not be back, but it won’t be because of the ratings, and I don’t try and predict cancellations for that reason.
Hellcats finally returns with new episodes tonight. We’ll have more ratings news for it tomorrow.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.