When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch seeks to prognosticate on what will happen by May. The two are still usually fairly closely aligned, particularly as we near the end of the season.
Ousts Creators, Is That a Positive Indicator for Renewal?
CBS Studios "exited" the shows creators according to Nikki Finke. That's fancy TV talk that I guess is intended to sting less than "you're fired, don't let the door hit you on the way out." Apparently the show's executive producer and the network think the show needs to be more procedural than the creators thinks. Finke notes the irony that only 9 months ago the original showrunner left over a creative spat with star Tom Selleck. Selleck had complained the show was too procedural.
While that may give Finke the opportunity to grind some axes, and one of our Hollywood favorites the opportunity to rage against the machine, it does seem like a positive indicator for the show's renewal prospects.
It seems like many of the trades, perhaps blown away bytotal viewer numbers, see its renewal as a fait accompli, but not us. Its Friday originals have performed at 60% of CBS's scripted adults 18-49 average. Even factoring in Friday, it's not a resounding endorsement for renewal, though perhaps a better case than the 70% average in its Wednesday trial run.
I view the "turmoil" as the type of thing that happens when networks aren't thrilled with the ratings, but why bother with any of that if the show isn't likely to return? It has been firmly perched on the bubble for a while, and I'm leaving it there, but it's hard to read the news as anything but a plus as far as its renewal chances.
Shouldbe Moved to Likely to Be Canceled?
It seemed like pulling teeth to getput on the bubble. Now some are calling for its cancellation after it returned to a craptastic 0.5 adults 18-49 . Its 0.8 in CW's target women 18-34 was nothing to write home about either. Particularly if the folks behind want to continue with it, I could see getting canceled. But most CW shows, including The were down this week. I'm leaving it on the bubble for now, barely.
In other news... Chaos and The Paul Reiser Show were canceled.
|The Paul Reiser Show||NBC||Canceled|
|Traffic Light||Fox||Certain Cancellation|
|The Event||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|Brothers & Sisters||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|ABC||On The Bubble|
|ABC||On The Bubble|
|CBS||On The Bubble|
|:||CBS||On The Bubble|
|: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|CW||On The Bubble|
|Breaking In||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Fox||On The Bubble|
|Law & Order: Los Angeles||NBC||On The Bubble|
|: Miami||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Harry's Law||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Mike &||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Law & Order:||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Renewed|
Someone suggested I try color coded shading. I tried it and didn't like it. I was going to go colorless, but it generated so much discussion last week that I figured I'd try it another week (with different colors). Either that, or I am just going with an Easter egg theme...