Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 - April 24, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|One Tree Hill||0.94|
|Smallville (F)||final season||1.08|
Even with the rest of the CW shows on a ratings slip 'n' slide, the ratings forhave now dropped it into the range where it's more likely to be cancelled than renewed. It returned with just a 0.5 adults 18-49 last week, which even on the CW isn't renewal worthy.
That means the CW is likely to premiere three new shows next fall, something I thought was unlikely, but not out of the question. That would make the renewals of all the other current CW scripted shows a near certainty, unless the cast and crew of one decides to call it quits () which I don't try and predict.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- - more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.