Bubble Watch: 'Chuck,' 'V,' 'Law & Order: LA' More Likely to Be Cancelled Than Renewed; 'Nikita' on the Bubble?

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch seeks to prognosticate on what will happen by May.  The two are still usually fairly closely aligned, particularly as we near the end of the season.

The television season is almost over, and so is the torture of waiting to find out which shows will be renewed and canceled.

Only two more installments of Bubble Watch after this week before heading into the upfronts when the fall schedules are announced.  As of now, of the 84 scripted shows on the list below, 20 of them have already been canceled or certainly will be, 36 have already been renewed or certainly will be, and two are in their final seasons.  That leaves twenty six shows with at least some level of guesswork.

I’m including Two and a Half Men in the guesswork pile, even though technically it’s already been renewed, and even though I can’t imagine it won’t be renewed. As Bill has noted, it doesn’t have to do as well as it did with Charlie Sheen to be worth CBS’s while. On the other hand, CBS won’t be willing to pay Warner Bros as much for it without Charlie Sheen.

Of the 26 guesswork shows, I have 9 of them on the bubble, with the remaining 17 leaning more one way than the other, and some more than others. But if for entertainment purposes you want to lump all 26 into your own personal bubble, go for it. I’m also fine if you want to drag Harry’s Law out of likely renewal to the bubble on your personal scorecards if it entertains you or otherwise makes you feel better.

Don’t be surprised if additional renewals are announced before the week of upfronts beginning May 16.

Several designation changes this week.

• Law & Order: LA downgraded to likely cancellation.
• Recent performance of Hellcats has it now more likely to be canceled than renewed.
• Unsurprisingly  90210, Gossip Girl, Supernatural and The Vampire Diaries were all renewed by the CW.
• Recent performance of Nikita and One Tree Hill, plus the fact that renewals for neither were announced (not really a surprise) have me dragging both down to the bubble. I'd be surprised if both were canceled, but wouldn't be surprised if both were renewed.