Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 - May 1, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index||6 Week Index|
|The Defenders (F)||0.47|
|The Defenders (Wed only)||0.54|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.60||0.64|
|Blue Bloods (Wed)||0.71|
|The Good Wife||0.76||0.79|
|Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||0.90||0.91|
|$#*! My Dad Says||0.99|
|Rules of Engagement||1.02||0.96|
|Mike & Molly||1.19||1.06|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.23||1.08|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.26||1.31|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.41||1.40|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed*||1.62|
This is the last week for "regular" Renew/Cancel Index posts. Next week Robert and I make our final predictions for every undecided show "Oddsmakers" style, so I figured I'd also look at just the last six weeks of show ratings in a separate short term "6 Week" Index. In many cases, on other networks, it shows us nothing different than the longer term Index (since 1/3/11), but for the CBS shows in doubt, the 6 week Index provides no significant differences, not nearly enough to move a show one way or the other.
CBS remains likely to cancel two of its current dramas so that it can premiere its typical three new drama hours next Fall. I'll make some more definitive guesses next week, but they'll still be somewhat stabs in the dark.
- CSI:NY - already syndicated. Likely relatively expensive.
- CSI: Miami - highest rated of the marginal dramas, already syndicated, plus sunglasses. Likely relatively expensive.
- The Good Wife - awards, not to mention....awards, plus the news that show principals are being locked into multi-year deals. Worst rated CBS scripted Sunday-Thursday show.
- Blue Bloods - Tom Selleck, and fans who'll mention it draws a squinty jillion average viewers at 10pm on Friday no less! Worst rated scripted show still on CBS.
- Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior - It's a spinoff, and CBS loves them their spin offs! It's a procedural, and CBS loves them their procedurals!
The only hope for the marginal CBS sitcoms Mad Love and $#*! My Dad Says is that the Two And A Half Men trouble removes the show from next season's line up. I'd guess that as highly unlikely, but there's at least some uncertainty.
*TAAHM received a two year renewal last season, through spring 2012. With the Charlie Sheen firing, the future of the show is somewhat uncertain.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.