Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 - May 1, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index||6 Week Index|
|One Tree Hill||0.93||0.82|
|Smallville (F)||final season||1.07||1.09|
This is the last week for "regular" Renew/Cancel Index posts. Next week Robert and I make our final predictions for every undecided show "Oddsmakers" style, so I figured I'd also look at just the last six weeks of show ratings in a separate short term "6 Week" Index. In many cases it shows us nothing different than the longer term Index (since 1/3/11), but the 6 week Index shows noticeable drops for both Nikita and One Tree Hill, two shows that were both on the bottom end of the "more likely to be renewed than cancelled" range in the long term Index. That plus the fact that they were not among the shows renewed early by the CW puts them both in the "toss up" for renewal or cancellation category.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.