This is the final week of Renew / Cancel posts for the season, since the Fall 2011 schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.
Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:
|$#*! My Dad Says||20%||33%|
|Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||45%||42%|
|The Good Wife||55%||65%|
|Rules of Engagement||95%||85%|
|Two and a Half Men||99%||95%|
|Mike & Molly||100%||100%|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||100%||100%|
The Renew / Cancel Index has had Blue Bloods, CSI:NY and The Good Wife in the "toss up" range nearly the entire season, now forced to guess, I'll take the chances of The Good Wife over the other two.
I'm fairly certain that two of these three shows will be cancelled: Blue Bloods, CSI:NY, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior, but no combination of two of the three being cancelled would surprise me.
Although it's outside the bounds of the Renew / Cancel predictions, I'd be very surprised if Two And A Half Men doesn't return in some fashion.
For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 - May 8, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Defenders (F)||0.47|
|The Defenders (Wed only)||0.55|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.60|
|Blue Bloods (Wed)||0.72|
|The Good Wife||0.78|
|Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||0.90|
|$#*! My Dad Says||1.00|
|Rules of Engagement||1.00|
|Mike & Molly||1.17|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.22|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.25|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.40|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed*||1.64|
*TAAHM received a two year renewal last season, through spring 2012. With the Charlie Sheen firing, the future of the show is somewhat uncertain.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.