CW: Final Guesses For 'Nikita,' 'One Tree Hill' & 'Hellcats' Renewal Chances

Categories: 1-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 10th, 2011

For the latest CW show Renew / Cancel Index news click here.


This is the final week of Renew / Cancel posts for the season, since the Fall 2011 schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Show Bill Robert
Hellcats 5% 2%
Nikita 55% 60%
One Tree Hill 55% 49%

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I'm leaning slightly positive on the chances for both Nikita and One Tree Hill, but as with most "toss up" shows, no combination of their renewal or cancellation would surprise me.

For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 - May 8, 2011):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Hellcats :cry: :cry: 0.72
Life Unexpected cancelled 0.80
Gossip Girl renewed 0.87
Nikita :| :| :| 0.91
90210 renewed 0.91
One Tree Hill :| :| :| 0.91
Smallville (F) final season 1.06
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.09
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.52

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What was the status of the CW Renew / Cancel Index for the Fall? Click here.


Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2011

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.

 
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