NBC: Final Guesses For 'Chuck,' 'Outsourced,' 'Law & Order: LA' & More Renewal Chances

Categories: 1-Featured,Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 10th, 2011

For the Latest Renew / Cancel Report for Other Networks click here


This is the final week of Renew / Cancel posts for the season, since the Fall 2011 schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Show Bill Robert
The Event 0% 0%
Chuck 25% 15%
Law & Order: Los Angeles 25% 25%
Outsourced 45% 49%
Harry's Law 80% 75%
Law & Order: SVU 100% 100%
Parenthood 100% 100%

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Unlike all other bears, the cancellation bear hibernates in the Summer, and after next week's schedule announcements produce his final victims, he'll be sleeping again until Fall.

Renewal of either Chuck and/or Law & Order: Los Angeles would be surprises, but not shocks.

A Fall lock for renewal, but a spring "toss up" at best, I'm leaning just slightly negative on Outsourced's chances for renewal.

I'd be surprised if Harry's Law was not renewed.

For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 - May 8, 2011):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Outlaw (F) cancelled
Undercovers cancelled
Friday Night Lights final season 0.42
The Paul Reiser Show cancelled 0.51
Chase cancelled 0.56
The Event :oops: 0.64
Law & Order: LA :cry: :cry: 0.68
Perfect Couples cancelled 0.73
The Cape cancelled 0.80
Outsourced :| :| :| 0.82
Chuck :cry: :cry: 0.84
Community renewed 0.90
Harry's Law :) :) :) :) 0.92
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
30 Rock renewed 1.12
Parks & Recreation renewed 1.27
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
The Office renewed 1.90

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What was the status of the NBC Renew / Cancel Index for just the Fall? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2011

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.

 
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