NBC: Final Guesses For ‘Chuck,’ ‘Outsourced,’ ‘Law & Order: LA’ & More Renewal Chances
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel posts for the season, since the Fall 2011 schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.
Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:
|Law & Order: Los Angeles||25%||25%|
|Law & Order: SVU||100%||100%|
Unlike all other bears, the cancellation bear hibernates in the Summer, and after next week’s schedule announcements produce his final victims, he’ll be sleeping again until Fall.
Renewal of either Chuck and/or Law & Order: Los Angeles would be surprises, but not shocks.
A Fall lock for renewal, but a spring “toss up” at best, I’m leaning just slightly negative on Outsourced’s chances for renewal.
I’d be surprised if Harry’s Law was not renewed.
For those who’d like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I’ll produce for the season, enjoy:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – May 8, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Friday Night Lights||final season||0.42|
|The Paul Reiser Show||cancelled||0.51|
|Law & Order: LA||:cry: :cry:||0.68|
|Outsourced||:| :| :|||0.82|
|Harry’s Law||:) :) :) :)||0.92|
|Parenthood||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.07|
|Parks & Recreation||renewed||1.27|
|Law & Order: SVU||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.31|
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.