There won't be any more regular Renew / Cancel Index posts for the rest of the 2010-11 season. (but you can see all the past posts here).
This week, now that the broadcast networks have announced their 2011-12 Fall schedules, I wanted to circle back and discuss some likely changes to the Renew/Cancel Index for next season.
Since our record in calling renewals and cancellations this season was even better than it had been in the past, spending lots more time trying to include lots more variables and work in the process just isn't in the cards. Any changes would have to either make predictions better (or at least as good, while making things clearer, my life easier, etc.
Here are three possible changes:
1. Averaging 30 minute sitcom and one hour drama ratings separately for Index purposes
In past seasons drama and sitcom ratings were all lumped together in a single average (initially because I relied on Nielsen's network average, later out of inertia). Separating them has two logical benefits (1) It makes the "averages" true averages since the show durations are identical between groups, (2) Because of scheduling inertia, 30 minute sitcoms compete each other and 60 minute dramas with each other, since networks only rarely change their sitcom to drama mix (although next season both ABC and NBC will do exactly that).
How'd that have changed things this season?
While it makes logical sense, I'm not sure it's going to make predicting any better, in hindsight there are both positives and negatives, CBS dramas/sitcoms may have been easier to predict, but NBC dramas would not have been.
That may imply that while sitcoms and dramas mostly do not compete for schedule space, the networks consider their overall ratings more than their sitcom or drama specific ratings. Interesting to note that of the big 4, only Fox's dramas outrated their comedies overall.
ABC
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Whole Truth | cancelled | |
| My Generation | cancelled | |
| Detroit 1-8-7 | cancelled | 0.51 |
| No Ordinary Family | cancelled | 0.65 |
| Off The Map | cancelled | 0.73 |
| V | cancelled | 0.82 |
| Brothers & Sisters | cancelled | 0.82 |
| Body Of Proof | renewed | 1.02 |
| Private Practice | renewed | 1.05 |
| Castle | renewed | 1.18 |
| Desperate Housewives | renewed | 1.34 |
| Grey's Anatomy | renewed | 1.70 |
| Happy Endings | renewed | 0.74 |
| Better With You | cancelled | 0.75 |
| Mr. Sunshine | cancelled | 0.86 |
| The Middle | renewed | 0.92 |
| Cougar Town | renewed | 0.92 |
| Modern Family | renewed | 1.69 |
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CBS
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Chaos (F) | cancelled | 0.39 |
| Flashpoint (F) | n/a | 0.47 |
| The Defenders (F) | cancelled | 0.50 |
| Medium (F) | cancelled | 0.56 |
| The Defenders (Wed only) | cancelled | 0.59 |
| Blue Bloods (F) | renewed | 0.65 |
| CSI:NY (F) | renewed | 0.68 |
| The Good Wife | renewed | 0.83 |
| CSI: Miami | renewed | 0.91 |
| Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior | cancelled | 0.95 |
| Hawaii Five-0 | renewed | 1.07 |
| CSI | renewed | 1.10 |
| The Mentalist | renewed | 1.12 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | renewed | 1.32 |
| Criminal Minds | renewed | 1.32 |
| NCIS | renewed | 1.57 |
| Mad Love | cancelled | 0.75 |
| Rules of Engagement | renewed | 0.88 |
| $#*! My Dad Says | cancelled | 0.88 |
| Mike & Molly | renewed | 1.01 |
| How I Met Your Mother | renewed | 1.06 |
| Big Bang Theory | renewed | 1.23 |
| Two And A Half Men | renewed | 1.45 |
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The CW, with all hour long shows, would be unchanged.
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Fox
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Good Guys (F) | cancelled | |
| Lone Star | cancelled | |
| Fringe (F) | renewed | 0.54 |
| Lie To Me | cancelled | 0.71 |
| The Chicago Code | cancelled | 0.71 |
| Human Target | cancelled | 0.81 |
| Bones | renewed | 1.22 |
| House | renewed | 1.28 |
| Glee | renewed | 1.51 |
| Running Wilde | cancelled | |
| Traffic Light | cancelled | 0.60 |
| American Dad | renewed | 0.80 |
| Raising Hope | renewed | 0.96 |
| Bob's Burgers | renewed | 0.98 |
| The Cleveland Show | renewed | 1.01 |
| Breaking In | cancelled | 1.09 |
| The Simpsons | renewed | 1.22 |
| Family Guy | renewed | 1.42 |
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NBC
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Outlaw (F) | cancelled | |
| Undercovers | cancelled | |
| Friday Night Lights | final season | 0.48 |
| Chase | cancelled | 0.64 |
| The Event | cancelled | 0.72 |
| Law & Order: LA | cancelled | 0.76 |
| The Cape | cancelled | 0.90 |
| Chuck | renewed | 0.94 |
| Harry's Law | renewed | 1.04 |
| Parenthood | renewed | 1.21 |
| Law & Order: SVU | renewed | 1.47 |
| The Paul Reiser Show | cancelled | 0.46 |
| Perfect Couples | cancelled | 0.66 |
| Outsourced | cancelled | 0.74 |
| Community | renewed | 0.80 |
| 30 Rock | renewed | 1.01 |
| Parks & Recreation | renewed | 1.13 |
| The Office | renewed | 1.69 |
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2. When a show ends its run on a network, I will permanently lock its Index at the number in its final week.
The averages are designed to make apples to apples comparisons between shows, but since the ratings during the broadcast season follow on overall predictable pattern, high initially, dropping slightly to a plateau through early March when daylight savings time and improving weather contribute to an inexorable decline towards May.
Therefore comparing the ratings for a show that ended its run in February with one that continued during the entire season isn't quite apples to apples.
The Indexes for cancelled shows like $#*! My Dad Says, V and Life Unexpected would then not have crept upwards after they were off the schedule making their prospects appear better.
3. No show within 22 episodes of syndication is going to drop below "toss up". (aka, the Chuck and Fringe "lessons learned" rule)
I used to designate shows nearing syndication with an (S) in the tables, but took it out to simplify things intending to remember to factor it in during the end of the season. Bad idea to rely on my memory. If I make it a rule, and keep it in the post each week, even I can't forget.
