New & Improved! The Renew / Cancel Index Returns!
This week’s season premieres of the CW’s Ringer, 90210, The Secret Circle, and Vampire Diaries, plus NBC’s premieres of Parenthood and Up All Night can mean only one thing…
The Renew / Cancel Index returns Tuesday September 20! (with posts for NBC & CW only, five network posts begin Sept. 27)
A boon* to fans not wanting to get invested in shows destined for the dustbin, the Renew / Cancel Index predicts the renewal and cancellation prospects for every primetime scripted show on the English broadcast networks. (*and a bane to fans wishing to ignore reality)
The Index divides the new episode adults 18-49 average rating for each scripted show by its network’s overall new show scripted adults 18-49 ratings average.
This season the Index will be New & Improved!
- No show within a season (~22 episodes) of syndication (~88 total episodes) at the end of the current season will ever drop below a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation.
- When a show ends its run on a network, I will freeze its Index at the number in its final week. That’s to prevent a show’s Index from changing after it ends its run.
- Expanding the Index range of the “toss up” zone (where renewal or cancellation could go either way) from 0.80-0.90 to 0.75-0.90.
These are the new *approximate* Index ranges and their default predictions:
- Index of 0.90 and above – near certain renewal (over 0.70 for Friday (F) shows)
- Index of 0.75-0.90 – a “toss up”, could go either way, but higher numbers are better (0.55-0.70 for Friday (F) shows)
- Index of 0.75 and below – near certain cancellation (below 0.55 for Friday (F) shows)
The Renew / Cancel Index again had an excellent record in 2010-11 with a few notable exceptions:
- Fringe, Chuck – see improvement #1 above.
- Happy Endings, American Dad, The Good Wife – see improvement #3 above.
- $#*! My Dad Says – CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom to make room for new sitcoms, regardless of ratings.
- Mr. Sunshine, Human Target, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior – shows in an advantaged timeslot that deliver mediocre ratings are in danger even with an Index above 0.90. Retentionistas hurrah!
Here’s how the Renew / Cancel Index performed for the 2010-11 season:
|Program||Network||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||Fox||cancelled||0.28|
|The Whole Truth||ABC||cancelled||0.42|
|Friday Night Lights||NBC||final season||0.43|
|The Defenders (F)||CBS||cancelled||0.47|
|The Paul Reiser Show||NBC||cancelled||0.52|
|The Defenders (Wed only)||CBS||cancelled||0.56|
|Blue Bloods (F)||CBS||renewed||0.61|
|No Ordinary Family||ABC||cancelled||0.62|
|Law & Order: LA||NBC||cancelled||0.65|
|Off The Map||ABC||cancelled||0.70|
|The Chicago Code||Fox||cancelled||0.75|
|Lie To Me||Fox||cancelled||0.76|
|The Good Wife||CBS||renewed||0.79|
|Brothers & Sisters||ABC||cancelled||0.79|
|Better With You||ABC||cancelled||0.80|
|Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||CBS||cancelled||0.88|
|One Tree Hill||CW||renewed||0.89|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||renewed||0.96|
|Body Of Proof||ABC||renewed||0.97|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||renewed||1.00|
|$#*! My Dad Says||CBS||cancelled||1.00|
|Smallville (F)||CW||final season||1.12|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||renewed||1.13|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||renewed||1.20|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||renewed||1.24|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||renewed||1.25|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||renewed||1.32|
|Big Bang Theory||CBS||renewed||1.39|
|Two And A Half Men||CBS||renewed||1.66|