This week's season premieres of the CW's Ringer, 90210, The Secret Circle, and Vampire Diaries, plus NBC's premieres of Parenthood and Up All Night can mean only one thing…
The Renew / Cancel Index returns Tuesday September 20! (with posts for NBC & CW only, five network posts begin Sept. 27)
A boon* to fans not wanting to get invested in shows destined for the dustbin, the Renew / Cancel Index predicts the renewal and cancellation prospects for every primetime scripted show on the English broadcast networks. (*and a bane to fans wishing to ignore reality)
The Index divides the new episode adults 18-49 average rating for each scripted show by its network's overall new show scripted adults 18-49 ratings average.
This season the Index will be New & Improved!
- No show within a season (~22 episodes) of syndication (~88 total episodes) at the end of the current season will ever drop below a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.
- When a show ends its run on a network, I will freeze its Index at the number in its final week. That's to prevent a show's Index from changing after it ends its run.
- Expanding the Index range of the "toss up" zone (where renewal or cancellation could go either way) from 0.80-0.90 to 0.75-0.90.
One thing that was considered, and tested, but will not be changed in this year's Index is averaging 30 minute sitcoms and one hour dramas separately for each network. While that seems logical, it wouldn't have been a clear cut improvement, so I'm passing on it.
These are the new *approximate* Index ranges and their default predictions:
- Index of 0.90 and above - near certain renewal (over 0.70 for Friday (F) shows)
- Index of 0.75-0.90 - a "toss up", could go either way, but higher numbers are better (0.55-0.70 for Friday (F) shows)
- Index of 0.75 and below - near certain cancellation (below 0.55 for Friday (F) shows)
The Renew / Cancel Index again had an excellent record in 2010-11 with a few notable exceptions:
- Fringe, Chuck - see improvement #1 above.
- Happy Endings, American Dad, The Good Wife - see improvement #3 above.
- $#*! My Dad Says - CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom to make room for new sitcoms, regardless of ratings.
- Mr. Sunshine, Human Target, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior - shows in an advantaged timeslot that deliver mediocre ratings are in danger even with an Index above 0.90. retentionistas hurrah!
Here's how the Renew / Cancel Index performed for the 2010-11 season:
| Program | Network | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Good Guys (F) | Fox | cancelled | 0.28 |
| Chaos (F) | CBS | cancelled | 0.37 |
| The Whole Truth | ABC | cancelled | 0.42 |
| Friday Night Lights | NBC | final season | 0.43 |
| Lone Star | Fox | cancelled | 0.44 |
| My Generation | ABC | cancelled | 0.47 |
| The Defenders (F) | CBS | cancelled | 0.47 |
| Detroit 1-8-7 | ABC | cancelled | 0.49 |
| The Paul Reiser Show | NBC | cancelled | 0.52 |
| MEDIUM (F) | CBS | cancelled | 0.53 |
| The Defenders (Wed only) | CBS | cancelled | 0.56 |
| Chase | NBC | cancelled | 0.57 |
| Traffic Light | Fox | cancelled | 0.57 |
| Fringe (F) | Fox | renewed | 0.58 |
| Outlaw (F) | NBC | cancelled | 0.60 |
| Running Wilde | Fox | cancelled | 0.61 |
| Blue Bloods (F) | CBS | renewed | 0.61 |
| No Ordinary Family | ABC | cancelled | 0.62 |
| Undercovers | NBC | cancelled | 0.63 |
| CSI:NY (F) | CBS | renewed | 0.64 |
| The Event | NBC | cancelled | 0.64 |
| Law & Order: LA | NBC | cancelled | 0.65 |
| Off The Map | ABC | cancelled | 0.70 |
| Hellcats | CW | cancelled | 0.71 |
| Perfect Couples | NBC | cancelled | 0.74 |
| Happy Endings | ABC | renewed | 0.75 |
| American Dad | Fox | renewed | 0.75 |
| The Chicago Code | Fox | cancelled | 0.75 |
| Lie To Me | Fox | cancelled | 0.76 |
| V | ABC | cancelled | 0.78 |
| The Good Wife | CBS | renewed | 0.79 |
| Brothers & Sisters | ABC | cancelled | 0.79 |
| Better With You | ABC | cancelled | 0.80 |
| The Cape | NBC | cancelled | 0.80 |
| Life Unexpected | CW | cancelled | 0.81 |
| Outsourced | NBC | cancelled | 0.82 |
| Chuck | NBC | renewed | 0.83 |
| Mad Love | CBS | cancelled | 0.85 |
| CSI: Miami | CBS | renewed | 0.85 |
| Gossip Girl | CW | renewed | 0.86 |
| Human Target | Fox | cancelled | 0.87 |
| Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior | CBS | cancelled | 0.88 |
| Community | NBC | renewed | 0.89 |
| One Tree Hill | CW | renewed | 0.89 |
| Mr. Sunshine | ABC | cancelled | 0.91 |
| Raising Hope | Fox | renewed | 0.91 |
| Nikita | CW | renewed | 0.92 |
| 90210 | CW | renewed | 0.92 |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | renewed | 0.92 |
| Harry's Law | NBC | renewed | 0.92 |
| Breaking In | Fox | renewed | 0.96 |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | renewed | 0.96 |
| Cougar Town | ABC | renewed | 0.96 |
| Body Of Proof | ABC | renewed | 0.97 |
| The Middle | ABC | renewed | 0.98 |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | renewed | 1.00 |
| $#*! My Dad Says | CBS | cancelled | 1.00 |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | renewed | 1.01 |
| Private Practice | ABC | renewed | 1.01 |
| CSI | CBS | renewed | 1.04 |
| The Mentalist | CBS | renewed | 1.05 |
| Parenthood | NBC | renewed | 1.07 |
| Supernatural (F) | CW | renewed | 1.09 |
| 30 Rock | NBC | renewed | 1.12 |
| Smallville (F) | CW | final season | 1.12 |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | renewed | 1.13 |
| The Simpsons | Fox | renewed | 1.14 |
| Castle | ABC | renewed | 1.15 |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | renewed | 1.20 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | renewed | 1.24 |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | renewed | 1.24 |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | renewed | 1.25 |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | renewed | 1.28 |
| Bones | Fox | renewed | 1.29 |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | renewed | 1.32 |
| Family Guy | Fox | renewed | 1.33 |
| House | Fox | renewed | 1.37 |
| Big Bang Theory | CBS | renewed | 1.39 |
| NCIS | CBS | renewed | 1.47 |
| Vampire Diaries | CW | renewed | 1.55 |
| Glee | Fox | renewed | 1.59 |
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | renewed | 1.62 |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | renewed | 1.66 |
| Modern Family | ABC | renewed | 1.79 |
| The Office | NBC | renewed | 1.90 |
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