CW: Could Bad News For The Network Be Good News For 'Nikita'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

September 27th, 2011

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from September 12-25, 2011):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.60
90210 :| :| :| 0.80
Supernatural (F) :) :) :) :) 0.80
Ringer :) :) :) :) 1.05
The Secret Circle :) :) :) :) 1.10
Vampire Diaries  :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Hart Of Dixie not premiered
One Tree Hill  final season
Gossip Girl  not premiered

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The CW's overall ratings this season have just been trampled vs. the start of last season. They were down 36% among adults 18-49 during premiere week.

There are a lot of reasons for that. They added an extra hour of reality (H8R) that has done terribly. Nikita replaced Smallville on Friday and premiered with less than half its adults 18-49 rating. America's Next Top Model is showing its age, badly.

And with a new network president, the broom may be out next spring to sweep away more than the typical number of his predecessor's shows, particularly aging shows targeted at the narrow young womens demo like 90210 and Gossip Girl.

Wrap all that together, and Nikita's Friday start may not place it in as much peril as it may initially seem, but we'll have to see how its ratings develop.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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